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2024 Oscars Prediction Market Comparison
Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings
Mar 11
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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2024 Oscars Prediction Market Comparison
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December 2023
The Case for Legalizing Prediction Markets
In October 2022, Bloomberg published an article with the headline “Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden.” A hundred percent…
Dec 7, 2023
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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The Case for Legalizing Prediction Markets
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November 2023
Calibration of Sports Betting Markets
More Evidence from the Original Prediction Markets
Nov 7, 2023
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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Calibration of Sports Betting Markets
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August 2023
Manifold vs Polymarket Volatility Comparison
Comparing LK-99 Prediction Markets
Aug 4, 2023
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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Manifold vs Polymarket Volatility Comparison
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April 2023
Getting the Easy Alignment Problems Wrong
Against Sesame Maximizers
Apr 15, 2023
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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Getting the Easy Alignment Problems Wrong
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March Madness Forecasts: FiveThirtyEight vs. Betting Markets
WARNING: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE AND BORING RESULT
Apr 7, 2023
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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March Madness Forecasts: FiveThirtyEight vs. Betting Markets
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February 2023
2 Types of Forecast Accuracy
Imagine two people – I’ll call them Partially-Psychic Pete and Just-A-Regular-Guy John – are playing a game where they take turns attempting to make…
Feb 12, 2023
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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2 Types of Forecast Accuracy
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Land Use Regulations and Homelessness
Credit to Gary Winslett for noticing this pattern: I saw this tweet from him earlier today, and decided to do a quick analysis to put some numbers on…
Feb 6, 2023
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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Land Use Regulations and Homelessness
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January 2023
What Do Psychic Animals and Mutual Funds Have in Common?
Whenever there’s some big event happening like the World Cup, Olympics, or a presidential election, I often see headlines about psychic animals…
Jan 24, 2023
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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What Do Psychic Animals and Mutual Funds Have in Common?
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December 2022
Sports Betting: Learning From the Original Prediction Markets
I’ve been interested in prediction markets for a while, and have a lot of questions about how they work that I think could be answered through some…
Dec 26, 2022
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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Sports Betting: Learning From the Original Prediction Markets
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November 2022
Scoring Midterm Election Forecasts
Performance metrics for PredictIt, FiveThirtyEight, and Manifold Markets
Nov 12, 2022
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Mike Saint-Antoine
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Scoring Midterm Election Forecasts
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