Mike’s Blog

Home
Archive
About
Getting the Easy Alignment Problems Wrong
Against Sesame Maximizers
 • 
Mike Saint-Antoine
2
New
March Madness Forecasts: FiveThirtyEight vs. Betting Markets
WARNING: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE AND BORING RESULT
 • 
Mike Saint-Antoine
4
2 Types of Forecast Accuracy
Imagine two people – I’ll call them Partially-Psychic Pete and Just-A-Regular-Guy John – are playing a game where they take turns attempting to make…
 • 
Mike Saint-Antoine
11
Land Use Regulations and Homelessness
Credit to Gary Winslett for noticing this pattern: I saw this tweet from him earlier today, and decided to do a quick analysis to put some numbers on…
 • 
Mike Saint-Antoine
2
What Do Psychic Animals and Mutual Funds Have in Common?
Whenever there’s some big event happening like the World Cup, Olympics, or a presidential election, I often see headlines about psychic animals…
 • 
Mike Saint-Antoine
3
Sports Betting: Learning From the Original Prediction Markets
I’ve been interested in prediction markets for a while, and have a lot of questions about how they work that I think could be answered through some…
 • 
Mike Saint-Antoine
5
Scoring Midterm Election Forecasts
Performance metrics for PredictIt, FiveThirtyEight, and Manifold Markets
 • 
Mike Saint-Antoine
6
Mike’s Blog
© 2023 Mike Saint-Antoine
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing