Credit to Gary Winslett for noticing this pattern: I saw this tweet from him earlier today, and decided to do a quick analysis to put some numbers on this observation and visualize the relationship. If you want to read more, here’s a longer article
Whenever there’s some big event happening like the World Cup, Olympics, or a presidential election, I often see headlines about psychic animals…
I’ve been interested in prediction markets for a while, and have a lot of questions about how they work that I think could be answered through some…
Performance metrics for PredictIt, FiveThirtyEight, and Manifold Markets

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