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Imagine two people – I’ll call them Partially-Psychic Pete and Just-A-Regular-Guy John – are playing a game where they take turns attempting to make predictions about a fair coin toss by forecasting the probability that it will come up heads.
Mike Saint-Antoine
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Credit to Gary Winslett for noticing this pattern: I saw this tweet from him earlier today, and decided to do a quick analysis to put some numbers on…
Mike Saint-Antoine
2
Whenever there’s some big event happening like the World Cup, Olympics, or a presidential election, I often see headlines about psychic animals…
Mike Saint-Antoine
3
I’ve been interested in prediction markets for a while, and have a lot of questions about how they work that I think could be answered through some…
Mike Saint-Antoine
5
Performance metrics for PredictIt, FiveThirtyEight, and Manifold Markets
Mike Saint-Antoine
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